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George Maciunas Foundation Inc.

Doctrine of Chances by Thomas Bayes

Doctrine of Chances by Thomas Bayes

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Content

  • Fluxhouse  Cooperatives
    • Notes on Soho And a Reminiscence By Hollis Melton
    • The Fluxhouse Cooperatives By Charles R. Simpson
  • About
    • CV
      • Manifesto I
      • Manifesto II
      • Last Will
    • Contact
  • Exhibitions
    • Fluxus As Architecture
      • Prototyping Fluxus Prefab System
        • Press Release
        • Video: Prototyping Fluxus Prefab System Version 1.0
      • Fluxus Prefab System Lecture & Conference 2014 held in Bern, Switzerland
      • Fluxhouse Limited Edition
        • Press Release
          • Fanyu Lin, young architect from China, joins New York Fluxus Foundation on developing innovative Prefabricated Mass Building System
        • Exhibition Poster
        • Fluxhouse Limited Edition
        • Fluxhouse Animation
        • Fluxhouse_Interior View
        • Fluxhouse_Pre-fab System
        • Fluxhouse Collage
        • Fluxhouse Architectural Model
        • Fluxus Alphabet
      • Universal Structure
        • Press Release
        • Universal Structure – Fluxcity
        • Ginger Island
          • Maps
          • Robert Wittman’s Invitation to Ginger Island
          • Stories of Adventure
          • Photo of Ginger Island 2010
          • Fluxcity Masterplan
      • Fluxus Prefab System at the 14th International Architecture Exhibition – la Biennale di Venezia, 2014
      • Decoding Fluxus Prefab System
        • Exhibition View
      • Essays
        • The Fluxhouse Cooperatives of SoHo
        • Essay/Critique on Art and Architecture by George Maciunas, 1964
        • Architecture and Efficiency – George Maciunas and the Economy of Art
        • Maciunas’s Models: Thought in Three Dimensions
      • Reviews
      • The Chinese Unit – Urban Form For Future China
      • Fluxhouse™/Fluxcity™ Prefabricated/Modular Building System
        • Press Release
        • On Fluxhouse™
        • Cities in Flux –Part 1
        • Cities in Flux –Part 2
        • Digital Animation
        • Web Exhibition Fluxhouse™
          • Fluxhouse™/Fluxcity™
          • Fluxcities: Prefabricated/Modular Building System™
          • Media Advisory
          • Press Release
          • Fluxhouse™ and Khrushchyovka
          • Plan of 1900 SQ. FT. Fluxhouse
          • Comparative Analysis of Prefabricated Building System
          • Comparative Data on Housing in Various Countries
          • Fluxhouse™
            • Fluxhouse™: Assessment Report
            • Fluxcity™
            • Digital Animation
            • Essays
          • Essays
            • European Alternatives: On nomadism Interview with Rosi Braidotti
            • NeMe: Remarks on modernity, mobility, nomadism and the arts by Dr Michael Haerdter
            • Superstudio Architectural Group (1966-1978) Design Museum Touring Exhibition
            • Design methods, emergence, and collective intelligence by Nikos A. Salingaros
            • “Nomadic Architecture” A year long study on architecture in the nomadic communities of Mongolia, West Africa, India, and Ireland by.Stephanie Carlisle
            • Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren by. John Maynard Keynes
            • Modularity of Mind
            • Intelligent Environments: Spatial Aspects of the Information Revolution By Peter Droege
            • The Architecture of Intelligent Cities By. Nicos Komninos
            • The Anywhere Working City By. Microsoft
            • The Fluxhouse Cooperatives By Charles R. Simpson
            • Notes on Soho And a Reminiscence By Hollis Melton
            • TIME TRAVEL IN A CABINET By Carolina Carrasco
            • World Economic Forum: Big Data, Big Impact, New Possibilities for International Development
            • Nature: Human cycles, History as science By Laura Spinney
            • Diagram of the Fold The actuality of virtual architecture By Dr. Mark Jackson
            • Maciunas’s Models: Thought in Three Dimensions By Julia E. Robinson
          • Videos
            • How Buildings Learn – Stewart Brand 1 of 6 – “Flow”
            • How Buildings Learn – Stewart Brand 2 of 6 – “The Low Road”
            • How Buildings Learn – Stewart Brand 3 of 6 – “Built for Change”
            • How Buildings Learn – Stewart Brand 4 of 6 – “Unreal Estate”
            • How Buildings Learn – Stewart Brand 5 of 6 – “The Romance of Maintenance”
            • How Buildings Learn – Stewart Brand 6 of 6 – “Shearing Layers”
            • Michael Haerdter: On Modernism and its impact on the world of flux
            • The restoration of Jean Prouvé’s Ferembal House
            • Patrick Seguin restores Jean Prouvé’s Maison des Jours Meilleurs
            • The Shock of the New, Trouble in Utopia By Robert Hughes
          • Articles
            • The Times Literary Supplement: Decision time for China By. Rosemary Righter
            • UN News Center: Over 200 million escape slums but overall number still rising, UN report finds
            • New York Times: Cities Deal With a Surge in Shantytowns By. JESSE McKINLEY
            • Red Herring Magazine: The Bilbao effect by. Joseph Giovannini
            • New York Times: Boldface Buildings in the Cold Light of Now By. VIVIAN S. TOY
            • Foreign Policy Magazine: Weapons of Mass Urban Destruction By Peter Calthorpe
            • Edge: A NEW KIND OF SOCIAL SCIENCE FOR THE 21st CENTURY
            • The Atlantic: ‘A Perfect and Beautiful Machine’ – What Darwin’s Theory of Evolution Reveals About Artificial Intelligence By. Daniel C. Dennett Daniel C. Dennett
            • TLS: Alan Turing in three words by Michael Saler
            • METROPOLISMAG: The Grandaddy of Prefab? by Morgan Campbell
          • Blogs
            • MAT urbanism from CUPtopia
            • Summer Sights: George Maciunas Prefabricated Modular Building System from Tree Hugger
            • The Culture Now Project: The State of The Contemporary American City from Landscape Urbanism
          • Christoph Gielen
            • Ciphers
            • “UNTITLED IV” Nevada 2010
            • “UNTITLED IV” Arizona 2010
            • “UNTITLED XII” Arizona 2010
            • “STERLING RIDGE II” Florida 2009
      • Fluxus In China
        • FLUXUS IN CHINA Exhibition Catalogue
    • George Maciunas and Le Corbusier
    • Mr. Fluxus
    • © Fluxus: Original Copyright Documents, 1963-1967
      • Press Release
    • Flux-Labyrinth, A Fluxus Gag
      • Essay by Larry Miller
      • Photos
      • Maciunas’ Proposal
      • Fluxmanifesto on Fluxamusement, 1965
    • Fluxus Foundation Archive – Yoko Ono
    • Knowledge as Art: Chance, Computability, and Improving Education Thomas Bayes, Alan Turing, George Maciunas
      • Press Release
      • The Three Eminent and Enigmatic
      • Knowledge as Art Hosted by Anthony Haden-Guest, Elizabeth Kurpis, and Harry Stendhal
      • Thomas Bayes
        • A History of Bayes’ Theorem
        • Bayes’s theorem
        • Bayesian Statistical Reasoning: an inferential, predictive and decision-making paradigm for the 21st century by Professor David Draper, PhD
        • Plasma Theory and Modelling Group / Bayesian Inference of Fusion Plasma Parameters
        • The Promise of Bayesian Inference for Astrophysics by T. J. Loredo
        • Divine Benevelence by Thomas Bayes
        • Doctrine of Chances by Thomas Bayes
        • On Some Recently Discovered Manuscripts of Thomas Bayes
        • Probability Theory: Bayes’s theorem
        • Bayesian analysis
        • Philosophy of Science: Bayesian confirmation
        • An Introduction to the Doctrine of Fluxions, and a Defence of the Mathematicians Against the Objections of the Author of The Analyst (1736)
        • The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes
        • The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes Chapter 10. Miscellaneous Items
        • The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes Chapter 10.3 Commentary on the letter to Canton
        • Sharon Bertsch MacGrayne:”The Theory That Would Not Die” How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy”
        • A Bayesian Framework for Remaining Useful Life Estimation
        • A Bayesian Approach to Sensor Characterization
        • PREDICTIVE GAME THEORY
        • Online Bagging and Boosting
        • Using Bayesian networks for Candidate Generation in Consistency-based Diagnosis
        • Bayesian Research at the NASA Ames Research Center, Computational Sciences Division
      • Alan Turing
        • Turing Machines (Stanford Encycropedia of Philosophy)
        • COMPUTING MACHINERY AND INTELLIGENCE By A. M. Turing
        • On Computable Numbers, With An Application To The Entscheidungsproblem
        • The Chemical Basis of Morphogenesis (Aug. 14, 1952)
      • George Maciunas
        • 3 Paintings of George Maciunas from 1950’s
          • Painting I
          • Painitng II
          • Painting III
        • GEORGE MACIUNAS CURRICULUM VITAE
        • Maciunas’ Learning Machine
        • Contemporary Man
        • Proposals of Art Education
        • Maciunas’ Learning Machine: LEARNING IN THE AGE OF ENLIGHTENMENT by Astrit Schmidt-Burkhardt
        • The Dream of Fluxus: Studying Nomadism by Thomas Kellein
        • The Dream of Fluxus: Farewell to Modern Architecture by Thomas Kellein
      • Essay
        • Knowledge as Art: Chance, Computability, and Improving Education
        • A philosophical essay on probabilities by Pierre Simon, Marquis de Laplace
        • The Mass Distribution and Assembly of The Milky Way from The Properties of The Magellanic Clouds
        • The Rockstar Phase-Space Temporal Halo Finder and The Velocity Offsets of Cluster Cores
        • Dark Matter Halos in The Standard Cosmological Model: Results from The Bolshoi Simulation
        • Statistics of Satellite Galaxies Around Milky Way-Like Hosts
        • Galaxies in ΛCDM with Halo Abundance Matching: luminosity-velocity relation, baryonic mass-velocity relation, velocity function and clustering
        • The MultiDark Database: Release of the Bolshoi and MultiDark Cosmological Simulations
      • Blogs
        • The Role of Psychological Distance in Creativity and Innovation by Nav Dhami from The Laughing Buddha
        • The Wisdom of Many in One Mind: Improving Individual Judgments With Dialectical Bootstrapping by Stefan M. Herzog and Ralph Hertwig
        • Getting to Innovation: How Asking the Right Questions Generates the Great Ideas Your Company Needs by Arthur B. VanGundy
      • Articles
        • Scientific American: An Easy Way to Increase Creativity
        • The New York Times: Charting Creativity
        • Scientific American: The Evolving Web of Future Wealth
        • Tools for Innovation by Arthur B. Markman
          • No free lunch theorems for optimization
      • Papers by David H. Wolpert
        • Theory introduction: Information Theory
        • Presentation which introduces the theory: Bounded Rationality and Statistical Physics
        • Highlighting the connection to game theory: What Information Theory says about Best Response and about Binding Contracts
        • Theory applied to distributed control: Distributed Control by Lagrangian Steepest Descent
        • Theory applied to reinforcement learning: Distributed Adaptive Control
        • Finding bounded rational equilibria: Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria, Part I : Interative Focusing
        • Strong profiling is not mathematically optimal for discovering rare malfeasors by William H. Press
        • No Free Lunch Theorems
    • George Maciunas: point d’appui
      • Press Release
      • Maciunas’s Learning Machine
      • Contemporary Man
      • Curriculum Plan
      • Expanded Arts Diagram
      • Proposals for Improving Education
      • Diagram of Historical Development of Fluxus and Other 4 Dimensional, Aural, Optic, Olfactory, Epithelial and Tactile Art Forms
      • Fluxus (Its Historical Development and Relationship to Avant-garde Movements)
      • “Film Culture No.47, 1969” by George Maciunas
      • Essays
    • Fluxus Happening: “Mapping Maciunas” and “Exercise”
      • “Mapping Maciunas”
        • CV
        • Musicology
        • Contemporary Man
        • Curriculum Plan
        • Improving Education
        • Fluxus (Its Historical Development and Relationship to Avant-garde Movements)
        • Expanded Arts Diagram
        • Proposals of Art Education
        • Diagram of Historical Development of Fluxus and Other 4 Dimensional, Aural, Optic, Olfactory, Epithelial and Tactile Art Forms
        • Charts
          • John Hendricks: Thoughts on George Maciunas and Charts
          • Dick Higgins: [Fluxus Chart], Intermedia Chart
          • Dimitry I. Mendeleyev: Periodical Table of the Elements
          • George Maciunas: Note on Chart
          • Michel Sanouillet: “The Dada Movement,” Umberto Boccioni: “Pittura scultura futuriste. (Dinamsmo plastico)”
          • Wolf Vostell: Pre-Fluxus New York, Pre-Fluxus Cologne, Fluxus Wiesbaden
          • Miguel Covarrubias, Nathaniel Pousette-Dart, and Ad Reinhardt
      • “Exercise”
        • Exercise
        • Impossible Effort
        • Comparison between Chess and Go (West and East)
        • On Some Recently Discovered Manuscripts of Thomas Bayes
        • A Logical Reconstruction of Medieval Terminist Logic in Conceptual Realism
        • Hand Book of the First World Congress on the Square of Opposition
        • Foundations for Fluxions
        • William of Ockham (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
        • Occam’s Razor
        • John Buridan (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
        • Heraclitus (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
        • Logos
        • The Rise of Avant-garde Calligraphy in Japan
        • Astrit Schmidt-Burkhardt Maciunas’ “Atlas of Russian History”
      • For Immediate Release
      • Essays
        • Exercise
        • Mapping Maciunas
        • Yoko Ono : Essay by Nicole Demby
    • Mr. Fluxus:An Anthology of Essays, Anti-Film, Documents, Architecture, and Ephemeral Objects
      • Exhibition Poster
      • Media Advisory
      • Press Release
      • CV
      • Exhibition Checklist
        • Gallery 1
        • Gallery 2
        • Gallery 3
      • Personal History
      • Cooper Union Diploma
      • Life Chronology 1939-1978
      • Last Will
      • Learning Machine
      • An Anthology
        • Table of Contents
        • Diter Rot: Poetry
        • Henry Flynt: Concept Art
        • La Monte Young Letter
        • La Monte Young: Compositions
        • Walter De Maria: Compositions, Essays, Meaningless Work, Natural Disasters
      • Ginger Island
        • Maps
        • Robert Wittman’s Invitation to Ginger Island
        • Stories of Adventure
        • 2010
      • Fluxfilms 120 min.
        • Amy Taubin on Fluxfilms
      • Fluxhouse Cooperative Building Project
        • 80 Wooster Street
        • Soho Statement
      • Essays & Reviews
        • FLUXUS: MAGAZINES, MANIFESTOS, MULTUM IN PARVO By Clive Phillapot
        • Thomas Bayes: Divine Benevolence
        • Thomas Bayes: “Doctrine of Chances”
        • Art from Letters and Paper By Thomas Kellein on George Maciunas
        • John Held Jr.-“An Anthology:The Education of Mr. Fluxus”
        • John Held Jr: Black Mountain College Museum, Networking Chance: “A Global Situation Involving the Possibility of People Everywhere and Anywhere”
        • Art Agenda: Mr. Fluxus Exhibition “The Birth of the Curator has led to the Death of the Artist”
    • Do-It-Yourself: Group Exhibition
      • Press Release
      • Essays and Reviews
        • Do It Yourself By Ken Friedman
        • Art from Letters and Paper By Thomas Kellein on George Maciunas
        • YOKO ONO “GRAPEFRUIT” AT STENDHAL GALLERY
        • DADA TO DIY: The Rise of Alternative Cultures in the Twentieth Century By John Held Jr.
        • The New Yorker: George Maciunas
        • Village Voice: “15 Minutes and Counting”
      • Artists Exhibited
        • Yoko Ono
          • CV
          • Yoko/Maciunas/Brecht
        • George Maciunas
      • Works Exhibited
      • Newsletter 2009
    • Victor Tsyganko: PAINTINGS
      • Finding Shelter in Painting
      • Viktor Tsyganko Paintings
    • George Maciunas- Prefabricated Building System
      • Press Release
      • Checklist
      • Essays & Reviews
        • The Fluxhouse Cooperatives by Charles R. Simpson
        • George Maciunas on Corbusier
        • George Macuinas: Architect by Ken Friedman
    • George Maciunas:Charts, Diagrams, Films, Documents, and Atlases
      • Press Release
      • Essay:The Historical Past of Fluxus’ Future by Astrit Schmidt-Burkhardt
      • Works Exhibited
    • From Fluxus to Media Art
      • Press Release
        • Media Advisory
      • Essay by Amy Taubin: From Fluxus to Media Art
      • Works Exhibited
    • The Avant-Garde:From Futurism to Fluxus
      • Press Release
    • Fluxus:To George With Love
      • Press Release
      • CV
      • Works Exhibited
      • Essay:Fluxus:To George With Love
      • Flux Film Anthology
    • Fluxfilms
      • Flux Film No. 3: “End After 9”
      • Flux Film No. 7: “10 Feet” by George Maciunas
      • Flux Film No. 14: “One” by Yoko Ono
      • Flux Film No. 15: “Eye Blink” by Yoko Ono
  • Essays
    • MY SON By Leokadija Maciunas
    • John Held Jr: Black Mountain College Museum, Networking Chance
    • Art from Letters and Paper By Thomas Kellein on George Maciunas
    • FLUXUS: MAGAZINES, MANIFESTOS, MULTUM IN PARVO By Clive Phillapot
    • DADA TO DIY: The Rise of Alternative Cultures in the Twentieth Century By John Held Jr.
    • Divine Benevolence by Thomas Bayes
    • Thomas Bayes: “Doctrine of Chances”
    • An Anthology: The Education of Mr. Fluxus by John Held Jr.
    • I’ve Ripened to the Genius of George Maciunas By John Held, Jr.
    • NOTES on No Smoking
    • Do It Yourself By Ken Friedman
    • Yoko Ono “Grapefruit” at Stendhal Gallery
    • From Fluxus to Media Art By Amy Taubin
    • Fluxus: To George With Love By John Hendricks
    • George Maciunas:In Memoriam By Ken Friedman
    • FLUXUS: TO GEORGE WITH LOVE By Deborah Garwood
    • SHIGEKO KUBOTA By Nicole Demby
    • The Historical Past of Fluxus’ Future By Astrit Schmidt-Burkhardt
    • George Maciunas on Corbusier
    • George Maciunas:Architect By Ken Friedman
    • From Planned Utopias to Jerry-rigged Realities: The Multiple Forms of Maciunas’s Living-Working Systems By Mari Dumett
    • Maciunas’s Learning Machine
    • A Conversation with Francesco Conz by Henry Martin
    • Atlas of Prehistoric Art of China
  • Reviews
    • “Fluxus as architecture” argues for the structural coherence of George Maciunas’s universal language by Randy Gener
    • Art, life, and the legacy of Fluxus
    • George Maciunas Exhibition at 41 Cooper Gallery on Art Forum Critics’ Picks
    • New York Times: George Maciunas ‘Anything Can Substitute Art: Maciunas in SoHo’ by Holland Cotter
    • The New York Times: Fluxus and the Essential Questions of Life
    • The Architects Newspaper: George Maciunas Prefabricated Building System
    • Art Agenda: Mr. Fluxus Exhibition Review
    • Art in America: George Maciunas at Stendhal Gallery
    • The New Yorker: George Maciunas
    • Village Voice: “15 Minutes and Counting”
    • The Village Voice: States of Flux, George Maciunas
    • Architects Newspaper: George Maciunas Building the Fluxus Way
    • Artforum: “Fluxus:To George with Love”
    • Finacial Times: Flux Rises Again
    • Le Monde: Flux, a Movement that Increase in Vaule
    • Hint Magazine: Hint Gets to the Art of It All
    • Artopia: KEN FRIEDMAN -FLUXUS PRODIGY
    • Art In America: Janet Koplos on Shigeko Kubota “My Life with Nam June Paik”
    • The New York Times: Paying Homage To Irreverence
    • The New York Times: George Maciunas “More Than Fluxus”
    • Art Forum: Fluxus Focus
    • Art Forum: A Finger In Fluxus
    • Arts Magazine: Fluxus Redux
  • News
    • Charting Fluxus: George Maciunas’s Ambitious Art History at MoMA
    • New York Times: Celebrating Fluxus, a Movement That Didn’t Create by the Rules By Martha Schwendener
    • The Prodigious Son: George Maciunas Returns to Cooper in a New Exhibit
    • ANYTHING CAN SUBSTITUTE ART: Maciunas in SoHo
    • EXHIBITIONS: Fluxus! ›Anti-art‹ is also art. in Staatsgalerie Stuttgart
    • The Celebration of John Cage’s 100th Birthday – A House Full of Music Strategies in Music and Art at Mathildenhöhe Darmstadt
    • Fluxus and the Essential Questions of Life At the University of Michigan
    • Alan Turing Exhibition at the Heinz Nixdorf MuseumsForum
    • Hans Ulrich Obrist and Independent Curators International search for the do it archive
    • ‘Open Science’ Challenges Journal Tradition With Web Collaboration – NYTimes.com
    • Performa 11: Fluxus and the Tendency Toward Coherence – L Magazine
    • Fluxus and the Essential Questions of Life – artnet Magazine
    • Fluxus Exhibition : at/around/beyond at Rutgers University
    • Thing/Thought: Fluxus Editions, 1962–1978 Museum of Modern Art, New York
    • FLUXUS AND THE ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS OF LIFE at Grey Art Gallery
    • Upcoming Event in Grey Art Gallery NYU
    • Paula Cooper Gallery “Peter Moore: Picutre of George”
    • Art, life, and the legacy of Fluxus
    • Fluxus and the Essential Questions of Life
    • In the Spirit of Fluxus November 13, 1993 – January 16, 1994
    • In the Spirit of Fluxus May 12 – July 17, 1994 EXHIBITION FACT SHEET
    • Exhibition in the Spirit of Fluxus Captures with and Exuberance of International Art Collective
    • FLUXUS: Selections from the Gilbert and Lila Silverman Collection
    • “In the Spirit of Fuxus” at Whitney Museum of American Art
    • Walker Art Center Celebrates Fluxus in All Its Manifestations
    • Hood Museum of Art “Fluxus and the Essential Questions of Life”
    • Request for artist proposals: smARTpower(SM) Program
    • Contemporary Art Museum St Louis “Thea Djordjadze and George Maciunas”
    • Performa presents Yvonne Rainer’s New York Premiere
  • Blog
    • Exhibiting Fluxus: Mapping Hi Red Center in Tokyo 1955–1970: A New Avant-Garde
    • Exhibiting Fluxus: Keeping Score in Tokyo 1955–1970: A New Avant-Garde
    • Case Study: Mieko Shiomi Interprets Fluxkit
    • Off the Shelf: Vintage Fluxus
    • Unpacking Fluxus: The Unruly Stamp
    • Unpacking Fluxus: The Joke’s On Us
  • Copyright
    • Trademarks
  • Support Us
  • Subscribe to Newsletter

Reviews

  • “Fluxus as architecture” argues for the structural coherence of George Maciunas’s universal language

  • The Architect’s Newspaper: Building The Fluxus Way

  • The New York Times: Fluxus and the Essential Questions of Life

  • Art, life, and the legacy of Fluxus

  • The New York Times: George Maciunas “More Than Fluxus”

News

  • Charting Fluxus: George Maciunas’s Ambitious Art History at MoMA

  • ANYTHING CAN SUBSTITUTE ART: Maciunas in SoHo

  • EXHIBITIONS: Fluxus! ›Anti-art‹ is also art. in Staatsgalerie Stuttgart

Features

  • Maciunas’s Models: Thought in Three Dimensions By Julia E. Robinson

  • The Shock of the New, Trouble in Utopia By Robert Hughes

  • Design methods, emergence, and collective intelligence by Nikos A. Salingaros

  • NeMe: Remarks on modernity, mobility, nomadism and the arts by Dr Michael Haerdter

  • Knowledge as Art: Chance, Computability, and Improving Education By Jessica Rhee

Newsletter

  • George Maciunas/Fluxus Foundation Inc. Progress Report: Newsletter #1

  • George Maciunas/Fluxus Foundation Inc. Progress Report: Newsletter #2

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